Why the Dow Jones doesn't cut it

Having recently been exposed to the US media over an 8 week period , a depressingl ylong amount of time, I have more than a few gripes and grievences to write about. First and foremost in my mind is the over usage of the "Dow Jones" index to act as some sort of one-stop-indicator, that shows, at any given time, how the US economy is doing.

Flicking from channel to channel (and there are alot of them) I noticed that nearly every news channel had the bottom right corner of the screen devoted to telling me, and anyone else who cares to look, how the Dow jones index is doing for that day. Furthermore, many news broadcasts would begin by stating how terribly or wonderfully the "Dow" had performed that day, and how this was either an obvious sign of Economic recovery, or depending on the station's political allegence (like Fox news) an obvious sign that Obama's economic plans were good for nothing.

It occured to me that although this figure is being widely peddled as "the economy" to Americans, that very few of them would actually know what the Dow actual was, and much less what companies comprised the index.

So I went about asking a few people if they knew what the Dow was, the answers I got ranged in complexity:

1. "Its the economy"


2. "Its the Stock Market"


3. "Its an index of stock prices"


4. "It's an index of all the american shares trading on the stock market"

Before I did a little research on the matter myself I would have thought that statement number 4 would have been fairly accurate, however, with the help of a few online sources I discovered that I was wrong. The "Dow Jones" as quoted in financial newspapers, tv broadcasts etc, is actual an index or average of the 30 of the largest and most widely held public companies in the United States.

Statistically, when trying to analyse average performance of a high number of figures, it is important to consider what effect the "outliers", or extreme values, are having on the end figure. So taking into account ONLY the 30 largest companies in a given country seems on odd way to gauge economic strengh, because in effect it is an index comprised solely of outliers (of a sort).

And if having a mere 30 share prices wasnt bad enough, things get a little worse:

• The index calculates the its value based on the Dollar change in share prices, not as you might expect in % terms. Therefore if StockA - valued at $40 rises 1 dollar, and StockB - valued at $15 falls falls 1 dollar, the index will register no change whatsoever.


• As of March 2009 the Dow includes companies such as Bank of America, General Motors, Pfizer, Citigroup etc, companies how are in very volatile industries, and as a result who's stock price changes might falsely shape the day's Dow outcome.

I think that although I complain about this over simplification, there does need to be an easy way to describe how the economy is doing. The religiously revered Dow Jones doesnt seem to be the answer though. The S&P 500, which monitors the changes in, you guessed it 500 stocks, is a much better measure, however is used by the US/most media as a second class figure. Luckily for me someone who knows much more about the matter agrees with me. David Leonhardt from the NY times agress the S&P "absolutely would be a better measure" adding "there really is no good reason for the rest of us to use the Dow as the main benchmark of the stock market."

So, if you are smart, which of course you are, you should listen to me and David and view the Dow Jones as what it is, 30 companies and A not THE measure of the stock market.

Looking vs. Seeing

Back in town

Well once again I have left this blog in a bit of a dry spell for quite a long time, but I suppose I have a reason that could be seen as acceptable. For the last 2 months I have been having a bit of a wander around North America, and I was so consumed with exploring/sitting around/being lazy that I didnt contribute much to this blog.

Now that I am back I hope to be writing a little more regularly to the blog, and soon normal amounts of complaining will resume.

Below is a Goolge Earth map of my little journey.

Paying to be an employee

Due to my current travels posts on my little bloggy have been even lighter than normal, so sorry for that.

I heard an idea the other day that I thought was worth a mention. Car rentals appear to be all the rage these days, especially in the US & Canada seemingly, and people choose to rent a car to drive from location A to destination B rather than get a train/bus, and to be fair the car rental option tends to be cheaper.

What’s more, for the most part, you have the option to deliver the car to a branch at your destination rather than have to make the return road trip, however this will inevitably lead to situations where one branch might have a disproportionate number of cars, and sooner or later they will have to be returned to other branches around the country. This is of course undesirable as it means the company will have to pay staff to drive them back and pay for the petrol used in the process.

SO the ingenius idea that one of these companies cooked up was to advertise $1 rentals between certain locations under various circumstances. So for example, should Florida have too many cars & Boston have too few, they would advertise this route for $1 that weekend and hope that some spontaneous individuals would choose to take advantage of this offer.
This negates the need for paying staff and fuel charges and the customer is essentially paying (albeit a very small amount) to be an employee,

O'Leary on Aer lingus

Obama and expectations

Tuesday marks the inauguration of President Barack Obama, I must say I am quite excited about this, and I think it marks the end of the frankly ridiculous 2-term reign of George W. Bush. However I think that the expectations that come with the Obama administration may prove to be troublesome

I have long been a believer that expectation management is extremely important, the Obama campaign was undoubtedly successful but has whipped the US population, and the majority of the world into a complete Obama-frenzy, with expectations of his performance in office being sky high.

Barack Obama is inheriting a number of extremely challenging issues, most of which are unlikely to be solved in the first year or two. I believe Obama is going to do a great job, and will probably find it easy to do as well as his predecessor, however this will not be good enough, if Obama does not live up to the world-changing expectations set out by his campaign and supporters, he may be remembered as the President who could only talk the talk.

Congrats to Mr. Obama, and good luck, you'll need it...

Short Termism and Pricing

With the thoughts of my last article on charities and their short-termist marketing ploys in mind, my German guest poster Jo has come up with some anti-short termism thoughts of his own.


Well, we are still somewhere in the turmoil, crisis whatever you want to call it. Like most of the times people and firms react different to pressure. Today’s post is going to have a look at inappropriate short-term focus. An industry which has caused a lot of bewilderment in my eyes in the last years is the US car industry. It is one of those, most affect by the crisis, but there’s more. Beside inappropriate product portfolios and missed trends, the US carmakers have been gone completely crazy with discounting to prevent the erosion of their market share on their home market.


You want to see what I am talking about, well let’s examine a case. Take GM for instance:


“A 2007 Chevrolet Tahoe will have an MSRP of $33,990 for a model with a 5.8-liter, V-8 engine. That is $2,000 below the 2006 Chevrolet Tahoe even though the new Tahoe offers better fuel economy.”


First obvious question, why do you offer a product at a reduced price when it offers more value to the end customer?!
Anyway, just to show what this 5.6% price cut from the 06 to 07 model implies. Let’s assume they sell 1000 cars, and made a profit on each car of 3000 USD (a very positive assumption, in fact GM actually lost (!!!) some money on certain models). The graph below shows what this short-term, market share orientated marketing move means for the bottom line:
The graphs show that GM will have to sell 3000 (!!!) cars to just make the same profit as before. Amazing, right, what do you think a 5,6% price cut will you boost your sales by 200%? I simply don’t and even worse you ruin your long-term profits and prospects. This is how the fall of America’s car industry started. Well see where it goes, or well maybe their competitive strategy is more like this:
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj54MzX0uxBHeh3qyMur0rPqDAP7NG7pJV_ag_L6oE5W-O55o_jzUMJLa2mIHRsMIYYVjD2C6Kd_FLQ6cs_uFHPGORXwuJ_wGZxO0xtHOdh9GggYYqXqsY6AHRBMfwEmx0281yg-vviayX9/s1600-h/Bailout_Advert.jpg

OverFishing - Charities and long term image

*Doorbell rings*
Ed: Hello? (seeing its a representative of Concern)
Man: Oh hello I was just wondering if you would like to support... (launches into what would inevitably be a long drawn out spiel)
Ed: Listen, thanks for coming around but I won’t waste your time (implying go away)
Man: Oh I see, what’s the matter, you don’t like Concern?
Ed: Gives angry stare and shuts the door* ...
...

The last few years have seen the major charitable organisations in Ireland turn to somewhat questionable methods in order to gain the most revenue they can, and I suppose the change represents a shift to a more “Target driven” culture in these organisations.

The most visible and hideously annoying example of this are the representatives that hit the streets and harass the public (with often questionable methods) to “take a few minutes” of our time to be bullied into giving a standing order to the charity in Question. The shift has been a very definite move towards contracting out private firms, who pay their reps €13 an hour to pester the public, and is something find a little disturbing to be honest, and I’m not sure is particularly in line with the spirit of “charitable” donations.

With consumer confidence extremely low, and many people either feeling, or fearing the consequences of the economic downturn, I would imagine that those who might have given money to a charity in better times will reconsider this. As a consequence I think this will lead to a rise in the level of the “aggressive” approach of gaining revenue.

And to be fair, it will probably work, pester people a little bit harder and they may pay up, however I think that the conduct of these charities, and what their marketing managers consider to be acceptable marketing practices are ultimately going to be harmful in the long run. By annoying/infuriating large sections of the public I think they are ensuring that they person will have a negative view of that charity in the long run, and in turn will be unlikely to donate money to them.

I like to think that the situation is similar to the problem of over fishing, you will get good returns now, but one or two years down the line what have you done to your market/fish stocks. The way things are going I think most of the major charities will have tarnished their images substantially and will regret the “hard selling” conducted during the tougher times.

Approval rating 2002-2008 - George Bush

Above is a graph detailing the US public's "approval rating" of the outgoing President, the one and only George W.
From my last visit to the states I gathered that the population in general seemed to be in (vocal) acknowledgement that Mr. Bushs reign has been somewhat disastrous, a fact backed up by the data above.

Fed-Ex tracking - I'm Impressed

I am generally not overly impressed by many things...

For instance I am un-impressed with the idea of paying extortionate fees for a concert ticket from online ticket scalpers, which unfortunatly I had to do this week. I paid roughly double the face value of a ticket for a Roger Hodgson concert in Niagara Falls in March (which I am a little peeved about, but then again I now get to see the main singer for Supertramp, and I got a front row seat!), from a Toronto based "ticket broker".

I was a bit unsure of how long it owuld take to deliver a ticket from Toronto to Dublin and was a bit surprised and IMPRESSED (thats rare) by the whole affair.

The thing that impressed me most was the Fed-Ex package tracking service that you can get online, from the time Fed-Ex picked up the ticket from the seller in Toronto I was able to follow its progress at every stop it made along the way. Whats more is the whole transaction, door to door, took around 36 hours, which again I must admit impresses me (although I did have to pay about €20 for the pleasure).

Seeing as I am in such a state of joy at receiving my ticket for the concert I have drawn up a little graph to show its progress through the various stops it made en route to my hand:

Contruction & Decoration

Happy New Year

Despite most peoples moaning and groaning I found 2008 to be a pretty enjoyable year, 2009 should be a fun one!
To all those out in blog world, Happy New Year.

400,000 sausages

I have recently discovered a podcast that caters to my new found interest in numbers and statistics by the name of “more or less” a BBC run podcast hosted by Tim Hartford, author of “The undercover economist” (great book by the way).

One of the topics discussed in a recent podcast was the widespread hysteria surrounding the finding of high levels of Dioxins in some Irish pork which led to a recall of all Irish pork from the market. On the face of it, I suppose people were justified in being a little bit worried, after all it was Dioxins that were used to poison Ukrainian President Victor Yushenko.

Of course it was not long till the reputable newspapers such as the Sun, Mirror and Mail got out there with the respective headlines: "Toxic Irish pork is swept off shelves","Poison pork panic: Irish pigs were fed on plastic bags" and "Shoppers told: Don't eat toxic Irish pork"... Not so hard to see why people might start panicking.

However behind the scary headlines and uninformed hysteria lay a numerical truth to the situation. An analyst on the podcast commented how in order to reach the levels of Dioxin that poisoned Mr. Yushenko, an individual would have to consumer 50,000kg of tainted pork, or put is sausage terms, that would be a whopping 400,000 sausages.

So with that in mind how many contaminated sausages you would have to eat to achieve Yushenko-esque levels of poisoning? With an Irish life expectancy of 77.7 years:
400,000 divided by 77.7 divided by 365 = 14.1 dioxin contaminated sausages a day for the rest of your life.

Although the above example may be a bit unrealistic, what really would be the effect if one were to eat sausages for breakfast, lunch and dinner. A nutritionist on the podcast had his own opinions on that particular choice of diet: “The first thing I would suggest if you get your cholesterol checked” adding that “Even if you consumed that amount of pork, would there be any risk from the dioxins, in all probability the answer would be no”

So one very public health scare and more than a few damaging headlines later we are left with an Irish Pork industry that has taken a huge hit, and whose future is uncertain. Again this comes down to omission of certain facts by the media in order to make a story more than it is.

Key accounts - Big... Beautiful? (Ed)

Jo my German friend wrote a post yesterday about "Key account management" here, it discussed how your big customers (in terms of sales volume) may not necessarily be worth the effort, money and time spent that must be spent to keep them happy
I had a few thoughts on this myself:

Degree of customer independence
I suppose one thing that needs to be taken into account when talking about these “Big customers” is whether they hold any weight in the decisions made by other parties in the marketplace.

Suppose that “Compu Co.” sells a type of computer to retail shops all around the country, their biggest customer accounting for more than 20% of their sales is PC World. Although this relationship takes a disproportionate amount of time, money and effort PC World are judged as the industry leaders by the competition and all the smaller players purchase according to the trends set by the industry leader. In this case it may be worth the money and effort expended on keeping this “key account” going strong, as a consequence they receive stronger sales from the other 80% of customers who judge their product to be superior to the competition – “it must be, PC World just bought 10,000 of them!”

However if the “Key account” company does not have such sway over the other operators in the marketplace and is completely independent, as I would assume is the case in the majority of b2b relationships then the importance and priority attributed to keeping the big guys happy needs to be re-examined.

The influence of a customer down through the supply chain.
Some industries may be structured so that one set of large customers have a hugely disproportionate say in what gets sold at a later stage in the market. From my own experience the example of pharmaceuticals manufacturers and hospitals comes to mind.

In Ireland the network of Irish hospitals are considered a “Key account” not primarily because of the quantity sold in the actual hospital, but because the decisions made in the hospital have wide reaching effects into the market as a whole.

Hospital pharmacies are able to purchase pharmaceutical products at a heavily discounted rate in comparison to their private sector counterparts, with the manufacturers employing the logic that whatever drug they get prescribed in the hospital, will continue to be received by the patient outside the hospital. So by selling the hospital cholesterol lowering drugs at bargain basement prices, the company have now ensured that 54 year old Johnny will be paying for these on the outside world till death do them part.
As much hastle as it is to maintain these hospital relationships – its is most certainly worth it.

Eggs and Baskets.
To keep it short: nothing is certain, especially in this economic climate. If your key account worth 30% of your sales were to... go out of business... where would that leave you. Expect the unexpected.

They are just my observations on the situation, and in summary I think Jo is correct, the fact is that many companies seem incapable of distinguishing a difference between a customer that provides Sales volume and one that provides superior profitability. Exceptions certainly exist however, and I suppose the lesson to take away from this is that analysis of WHY your supposed "key accounts" are important should be thorough and ongoing.
for example below... big... NOT beautiful

Guest poster - "Jo"

I am happy to announce that my good German friend Jo will be contributing a few guest posts on this little blog of mine. I had the pleasure of sharing my final year of marketing with Jo and he taught me a thing or two about work ethic and ways of analysing situations. Jo shares some of my pet peeves and odd obsessions so I see his posts as being a good fit for the blog.
Introducing Jo:

Let me say HI first and briefly introduce myself. Most people call me Jo (short for my long full German name Johannes) and I got to know and work with Ed while I did two exchange semesters at UCD. I am really thrilled to write a little guest entry for Ed’s blog and the two of us hope to make this somewhat regular… I am studying business administration and economics with specializations in marketing and services management. At the moment I am working with a consultancy with a focus on marketing and strategy in Luxembourg.

Key accounts - Big... Beautiful?

FIRST GUEST POST BY JO...
“Size matters not. Look at me. Judge me by my size, do you? Hmm? Hmm. And well you should not.”
Yoda (Star Wars)

In my recent consulting work I did a project that focused on the design of a key account management (KAM) - sometimes also referred to Strategic Account Management - strategy and the implementation and realization of KAM.

Many companies in different industry generate a significant share of their revenues with few customers – the so-called key accounts. In some extreme cases, even the old 80-20 rule is proven true, meaning 20% of customers create 80% of the company’s sales.

During the course of the project, I did some background research and stumbled across a really interesting article by some researchers from Warwick (Piercy & Lane). They wrote a paper about the dangers of key account management which I thought was well worth reading. In a nutshell, their message to CEOs and marketing VPs was to examine KAM a bit more critically. It is quite in line with my observation in the “real world”.

While there is a lot of fuss about increasing sales and strengthening the competitive position in these large accounts, very few actually discuss whether these large accounts are really as attractive as they seem, especially in regard to their profitability and fit with overall company strategy.

Is should be noted that the installation and maintenance of a KAM strategy and systems are likely to lead to further increase the costs to serve these large customers. It is important to note, that big is not always beautiful and especially, if your sales come out of an 80/20 situation, you may want to seriously reconsider your business model.

Of course, revenue generated is an important factor, but size should never be the only or main decision criteria for deciding whether an account is strategic/key or not. While Yodas sentiments may be a little too much, it should not be size that is prized alone either, finding balance as always is key.

Is there a doctor in the county?

Above is a map detailing the number of General practitioners per county in Ireland.
I was pretty amazed to find out there are circa 3900 GPs in the country, about 1 for every 1,100 people.
Dublin leads the way with over 1,100 GPs registered in the county.

Aer Lingus: Death by rejection?

Well 2008 is almost behind us and the Aer Lingus/Ryanair saga continues with no sign of an agreement in the near future. In my opinion the continued blanket refusal by Aer Lingus to consider a takeover by Ryanair is completely unfounded and ridiculous.
Firstly it is clear that sentimentality and politics are getting involved in the situation, where clearly this should not be the case. The “state run company” attitude is still following Aer Lingus around like an unprofitable shadow and is clearly getting in the way of important commercial decisions, like say... dropping an unprofitable route:

“Also at the hearing, Aer Lingus has been told that unless it re-instates a Shannon to Heathrow service, there would be considerable support among TDs for the Ryanair takeover bid. A number of TDs from the Shannon region said there was still a lot of anger there, about the pull-out”

The fact is that Aer Lingus is not a charity, it does not OWE any airport in Ireland anything, the airline should be able to make commercial decisions without having TDs from the Shannon area interfering and I have a feeling that a management headed up by Michael O’Leary wouldn’t stand for this constant interference from these irrelevant parties.

My second point of contention with the anti-Ryanair takeover crowd is their insistence that the takeover bid “significantly undervalues Aer lingus”:

Ryanair says the proposal represents a premium of about 28% over the average closing price (€1.09) of an Aer Lingus share for the 30 days to November 28. It also represents an premium of about 25% over the closing price of €1.12 of an Aer Lingus share on Friday.

Given that Ryanair offered 25% over what the market values Aer Lingus at, I find it bizarre and absurd that someone would argue the bid “undervalued” the company, again this act of denial of financial reality is another example of the complete ignorance of the Aer Lingus board as to the state of their company.

Some interesting facts from Finfacts.ie:

Since 2006, when Aer Lingus rejected Ryanair’s €2.80 offer, they have:

• Spent over €24 million on its defence of Ryanair’s 2006 €2.80 offer


• Allowed its director’s basic annual fee to almost treble from €17,500 to €45,000


• Allowed its non-executive Chairman’s basic annual fee to increase fivefold from €35,000 to €175,000


• Increased short haul fares by 7% to €94Increased fuel surcharges 5 times to a current average of €75 per sector


• Aer Lingus’ forecast operating losses for 2008 and again in 2009
  

In summary I suppose I would like to tell the Aer Lingus board to get real, a Ryanair takeover is the best option for the continued existence of the company. Its time for Aer Lingus to get the sentimentality of “the good old times”, and the politics out of its decision making, its also time to have a management that is not afraid to make tough decisions, and its time for Aer Lingus to get a strategic plan that will ensure the companys long term survival.

The British £... times have changed

Damn Lies

Having dealt with a large amount of data in my line of work in the last while I have become more than a little bit sensitive and touchy about a few things related to the area of statistics. The above quote sums up what I am trying to get at here, being the constant hijacking of various bits of information, and presenting them in a way which, by exluding other relevant factors is completely misleading and unhelpful.

I talked about this briefly a few posts ago where I mentioned the importance of putting things in CONTEXT before judging them to be relevent/important/interesting in any way at all.

Well the nice folks at the Irish times gave me something to grind me teeth to yesterday: "Ireland ranks fourth dearest in price survey"

Now I realise what they are saying is for the most part correct, Ireland is undeniably an expensive place to live, but it is the inclusion of sentances like "a trip to the movies checks in at €8.22, down from €9.50 last year. By contrast, a cinema ticket in Lithuania costs just €3.63." which get me a little worked up.

Yes the absolute euro cost is almost three times higher, but to willingly OMIT the fact that the GDP per capita is 6 times higher in ireland ($51600 in Ireland vs $8590 in Lithania (2006 UN stats link)) renders their argument on this instance completely meaningless, seeing as going to the cinema in Lithuania, on a Lituanians wage, would take up more of the average persons income.

This example is by no means an isolated example, these "news stories" crop up all the time and all they do is serve to misinform and confuse people... Lies I tell you! Damn LIES!!!

On the British VAT plan

It seems like I am not alone in my views on the British governments "big plan" to get consumer confidence back up, the decidedly timid 2% cut in VAT.
Germany's finance minister Peer Steinbrück had a few choice words on the matter which appeared in this weeks newsweek.

"Our British friends are now cutting their value-added tax. We have no idea how much of that stores will pass on to customers. Are you really going to buy a DVD player because it now costs £39.10 instead of £39.90? All this will do is raise Britain's debt to a level that will take a whole generation to work off"

Handshake? no need! - A George Bush guide

Rowan over at the Fortify Services blog wrote a little bit recently about the importance of handshakes, he referenced a quote from the one and only Donald Trump who "poo-poos" the handshake altogether
"I think that the only thing better than a good handshake is no handshake at all."
If the Trump man is true then former President George Bush has mastered that tactic, watch the video below and marvel at his ability to break free from that pesky norm of shaking hands with other national leaders.
*he does seem kind of sad, as the news anchor says, almost like the kid who no-one will play with.

Absolute vs Percentage - put it in context

I have been thinking about writing a piece on this for quite some time but two events I read about in the news have spurred me on to write it without delay.
People need to realise there is a difference between a absolute number and a percentage. Without being able to put either the absolute, or percentage figure into context they are effectively meaningless.

Take example one. Absolute figure without percentage for context
The Irish agency "FAS" who are involved in training, reskilling and job creation in Ireland, were lambasted in the media for spending circa €600k on "travel and entertainment". Firstly, like it or not, that is the way business is done, building relationships with organisations is an expensive activity, business class flights, fancy restaurants the whole nine yards, as unattractive as that may be its the reality of the situation. SECONDLY, Fas's budget is €1billion. In percentage terms €600k is equal to... wait for it... 0.06% of the overall budget (odd they don't quote that figure in the media)... get over it.

Example 2. Percentage without the absolute for context
Another story that really grinded my gears was the "groundbreaking news" that the UK VAT rate will be reduced by a whopping 2%. The UK media, and seemingly government seem to think that by reducing VAT by 2% this will get people spending in the same reckless way which they used to pre-financial crisis. This is just stupid, and people are obviously not thinking of this in context.
"Plasma screen T.V. - previously £999, now starting from as low as £979"
"Bottle of Champagne - previously £60, now £58.80"
... useless.

The price of admission

A pic taken from my recent travels.
For a brief while I thought this was the extent of American security at the Canadian border. I by charging a fee to get in you are ensuring only the wealthiest of immigrants.

Ed's powerpoint quotes

Wise Words - Cube1986

View SlideShare presentation or Upload your own. (tags: quotes words)

Media and definitions

Now don't get me wrong I am happy that the US election panned out as it did, I was very much an Obama man. However one thing I cant get behind is the general media's attitude that the election of an African American president shows that the US has turned a major corner.

Pundits will often cite the "crushing", "landslide" victory that Obama enjoyed once the votes had been counted, and I suppose the electoral college system in the US goes a long way to make the vote often appear more one-sided that in it should. Obama received 53(ish)% percent of the overall vote, now I dont know how the average person would define a landslide, but for me that just doesn't cut the mustard.

Almost half of the US voting population do not want to see Mr. Obama in the Whitehouse, and these nice folk will be gunning for him (hopefully not in the literal sense, but I wouldn't doubt it) for the entire duration of his time as the "Commander in chief".

Say it all you like but 53% does not a landslide make... thats all I have to say about that

30 years on

This week I witnessed a colleagues 30th work anniversary (right term?). This is quite an accomplishment and from the multiple "can you beleive it" conversations going on around the office I gather it is extremely rare that someone completes such a long stint with one employer.

There was of course the standard issue cake, speech and handing over of a nice watch, and it was quite nice to see how proud the man was of being, as the MD put it, "woven into the fabric of our company".

My favorite part of the proceedings was the employee's recount of what working in the pharmaceutical industry was like all those decades ago.

I suppose for people of my generation it can be easy to forget that until relatively recently there was no internet, there were no computers, no emails, no excel spreadsheets... (that last one could be a good thing).

I can imagine that working without these things must have been an entirely different ball game, a very papery ball game. In the days when email was a few decades away, and computer based documents were unthinkable, paper must have been king and thats something I just cant imagine.

All this thinking about how weird and tough it must have been back then, made me appreciate (in an odd way) the current bains of my daily life, things like Microsoft Excel, email, Powerpoint, because I know that having to perform these functions in an analouge way would be an insane operation. By using excel spreadsheets I have the power to perform various statistcal analyses that would be totally impracticle to try on paper (I have horrible thoughts of sitting infront of graph paper with a pencil and ruler). By using a simple database program managers can check sales of every pharmaceutical product, in every County, by using video conferencing an employee in Ireland can talk with an employee in America in real time...

While all this may seem boring to the average person I do find the changes that have occured between Mr.30ths first day and today to be fairly amazing.

30 years... It's a long way off, what will things be like then?

You know a political campaign has been a success when...

Well I suppose you know it has been a success when you have been elected, but during a walk around Buffalo, NY, I found the scene pictured above. The Obama "change" had spread beyond the electorate to the extent where little kids with chalk were inspired by the possibility of a change of direction for the US.

I am very happy that Mr. Obama prevailed in the election, however I see two major challenges for the new President.

1. He only won 53% of the "popular vote", meaning 47% of the country aren't so happy to have Obama in the Whitehouse, these nice folk will be trying to shoot him down (hopefully not literally) every step of the way.
2. Even with his fans the expectations of what he will deliver are unbelievably high, even if he performs adequately, or indeed above average, this will probably be viewed as "not good enough".

Interesting times ahead.

Golf Sale?

From what I gather, selection of actors for ads is a fairly extensive process which takes days if not weeks, or maybe even months. Take for example the "I'm a pc, I'm a mac ad", it just wouldn't have worked unless those actors suited the role, and were dressed in a way that would best convey the message.

I was taking a stroll through Grafton street and came across the "oh so regular" regular feature of Grafton street, a gang of homeless looking folk holding up signs for various shops which reside down some side street.

The fine gentleman in the blue jacket, with his hood up, is holding up a sign for... a golf shop. Now I may not be an expert in advertising, but I am a person with reasonable intellect, does this person really convey what the golf shop want people to think about their shop? For me, I would be afraid it is some sort of trick to lure me down a lane (which it might be).

Recently when I was in Chicago I saw a homeless man, wearing old shabby clothes, holding up a sign for a shop which sold "Luxury mens suits", I know that the advertisement may be cheap, but I would predict that it drives exactly ZERO customers to your fine suit shop, therefore although you may be paying them a meagre $5, that's five big ones down the drain.

So to those who favour "advertisement via big sign held by a homeless person" I say: Is this really the way you want people to view your business?

Airport security - dont bother asking

I used to like flying, I used to like it alot.
I suppose a great deal of my enjoyment was based on the fact that flying was like a real life google earth (I have called it this on multiple occasions).
Times have changed... the novelty I once enjoyed has been replaced with complete loathing for the amount of my life that is wasted in queues for queues, and spent answering absurdly stupid questions. Questions such as "did you pack your bags yourself" are surely unneeded, I think the late George Carlin put it very well when talking about the question "have your bags been in your possession the whole time"

No. Usually the night before I travel – just as the moon is rising – I place my suitcases out on the streetcorner and leave them there, unattended, for several hours. Just for good luck.

The one that really gets me is the set of questions they see fit to ask you on the USA visa waiver form, the little green form that no one can ever figure out how to complete (In Dublin airport they now have people dedicated to telling you how, nice design eh?).
The questions that are most ridiculous are to be found on the back of the form.
The first question regarding communicable diseases is fair enough, however if you were afflicted with yellow fever, and you really wanted to get into the USA would you really tell them? My personal favourite is:
"Have you ever been or are you now involved in espionage or sabotage; or in terrorist activities; or genocide; or between 1933 and 1945 were you involved, in any way, in persecutions associated with Nazi Germany or its allies?"
Again, this may indeed be information that the US government would like to know, but do they truly believe that any person who fits this bill will ever tick "yes"?

Questions like these are a stupid waste of time, I would assume that no sane person who actually wanted to enter the US would ever tick yes to any of these questions, if you know you will be lied to, don't bother asking, and let me get on my damn plane